Turkey is expanding its global influence amid rising multipolarity, deepening ties with both East and West. But can it sustain its ambition without alienating key partners or weakening its economy?
Turkey’s Middle-Power Renaissance in a Fracturing World
In an era where the U.S.-led international order is increasingly under pressure and great power rivalries are reshaping global dynamics, middle powers are stepping into the void. Among them, Turkey has emerged as one of the boldest and most assertive players, navigating the turbulence with a mix of strategic hedging, diplomatic ambition, and economic outreach. But while Turkey’s influence is growing, so are the risks.
Countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia have also sought to redefine their global standing. Yet Turkey’s geographic positioning—straddling Europe, Asia, and the Middle East—makes its rise especially consequential. Over the last decade, Ankara has recalibrated its foreign policy, expanding its sphere of influence beyond its traditional Western allies, often at the cost of straining historical ties.
From Western Pillar to Global Power Broker
For much of the Cold War and the post-Cold War era, Turkey was considered a reliable NATO ally and EU hopeful. But the post-2008 era has seen a pivot. With diminishing trust in traditional alliances and growing dissatisfaction with stalled EU accession talks, Turkey began cultivating new partnerships across the Global South, forging deeper economic and strategic links with China, Russia, Africa, and Central Asia.
Turkey now hosts the third-largest number of diplomatic missions globally, trailing only the U.S. and China. Its foreign service expansion is not symbolic—it reflects an intentional bid to shape global conversations, from conflict mediation in Africa to energy corridors in Eurasia.
Syria: A Risky Gamble with Strategic Rewards
Nowhere is Turkey’s middle-power ambition clearer than in Syria. Since 2011, Ankara has supported rebel groups opposing Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a position that placed it at odds with Russia and Iran. The policy was widely seen as a miscalculation—until Assad’s collapse in late 2024, a development that stunned many observers.
Turkey’s long game has paid off. Today, Turkey wields direct influence in Damascus, positioning itself as a primary stakeholder in Syria’s post-conflict future. This gives Ankara new leverage not only in the Middle East but also with Europe, which is deeply concerned about renewed instability and migration waves.
Military Innovation and the Rise of Defense Diplomacy
Parallel to its diplomatic surge, Turkey has engineered a remarkable transformation in its defense industry. Motivated by strained Western ties and growing security demands, Turkey invested heavily in domestic arms production.
At the center of this revolution is the Bayraktar TB2 drone, a symbol of Turkey’s high-tech ambitions. These drones have become a decisive force in conflicts from Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine. As of 2024, Turkey’s defense and aerospace exports surged to $7.2 billion, a nearly 30% increase from the previous year. Today, more than 30 countries import Turkish military hardware, and three Turkish firms are among the world’s top 100 arms producers.
The Economics of Hedging: Between Opportunity and Vulnerability
Turkey’s foreign policy, often described as “strategic hedging,” is meant to diversify partnerships and reduce dependency on any single bloc. But the economic outcomes have been mixed. While Ankara’s trade with Russia and China reached $101 billion in 2024—making up 17% of its total trade—its exports to those markets remain disproportionately low, worsening its trade deficit.
Simultaneously, Western economies remain vital. Around 70% of Turkey’s foreign direct investment (FDI) comes from EU and U.S. sources, and the EU is still Turkey’s largest trading partner. This creates a paradox: Turkey seeks strategic autonomy, but its economy is deeply tied to Western capital and markets.
Multipolarity’s Double-Edged Sword
The global shift toward multipolarity is often hailed as a window of opportunity for emerging powers. But it also means increased volatility. As U.S.-China tensions escalate, many middle powers may be forced to pick sides, or face economic retaliation from both camps.
Turkey’s deepening ties with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, its BRICS application, and increasing trade with non-Western economies could jeopardize its integration into European supply chains and future cooperation in critical areas like green energy and tech innovation.
Domestic Turbulence Weakens the Global Dream
Internally, Turkey still grapples with economic instability, currency volatility, and political polarization. Between 2019 and 2023, the country attracted only $53 billion in FDI—a modest sum compared to Vietnam’s $84 billion, despite Turkey’s economy being nearly double the size.
Furthermore, Turkey’s high-tech manufacturing remains underdeveloped. Just 4% of its exports are high-tech products, well below the global average of 19%. Without institutional reform and a coherent industrial strategy, Turkey’s middle-power ambitions will continue to outpace its capabilities.
Bridge or Battleground: The Diplomatic Dilemma
Turkey’s bid for global relevance has also come at a diplomatic cost. After its S-400 missile deal with Russia in 2017, Ankara was ejected from the F-35 program. Its EU ties have weakened due to concerns over democracy, migration control deals, and foreign policy clashes.
Even so, Turkey remains part of NATO, the EU Customs Union, and a Council of Europe founding member. This dual identity is a strength—but only if Ankara can manage it without alienating either side.
For example, despite ongoing talks to modernize the Customs Union and ease Schengen visa requirements, no meaningful progress has been made. Instead, the EU and Turkey often fall back on short-term, transactional agreements—money for refugee containment, silence on internal repression.
What’s Next: Reset or Rupture?
The post-Assad phase in Syria presents an opportunity. The EU and Turkey could partner in reconstruction, refugee stabilization, and border security. But this requires a strategic reset—one in which Brussels sees Turkey as a security partner, not just a buffer state, and Turkey re-commits to international norms and economic reform.
Failure to recalibrate could push Turkey further toward authoritarianism, economic decline, and strategic irrelevance. Success could position it as a critical mediator in a fractured world.
Conclusion: Power, But at What Price?
Turkey’s story is emblematic of the middle-power imperative in the 21st century: act boldly, hedge wisely, but know your limits. In a transactional world, flexibility is not the same as strength, and autonomy has its boundaries. Without a stable domestic foundation, a credible industrial strategy, and realistic foreign policy expectations, Turkey’s geopolitical ascent could become unsustainable.
As Ankara seeks to fly higher, it must be careful not to burn its wings on the flames of multipolar chaos.
