The war in Ukraine changed Europe’s idea of security. It pushed many governments to rethink how they protect themselves and how much they can depend on old partners. Germany, long known for caution in military matters, is now trying to rebuild its strength. But rebuilding an army is not easy when weapons factories across Europe are working at full capacity and supplies are already low. This sudden pressure has led Germany to look for new partners, and one surprising name keeps appearing: Turkey. For years, relations between Berlin and Ankara were troubled by political arguments, human rights concerns, and regional conflicts. Yet now, the two sides are quietly returning to each other. German leaders are openly saying that defense cooperation with Turkey is not only useful, but necessary. Why is this shift happening? And what does it mean for Europe, NATO, and the future balance of power?
A New Security Map After the War in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed Europe into its biggest security shock since the Cold War. Germany not only needed to help Ukraine, but also prepare for the possibility that the war could spread or last for many years. The problem became clear very fast: European factories simply do not produce enough weapons, ammunition, or high-tech equipment to meet the demands of a long war. Even large powers are running short on supplies.
Turkish defense analyst Caglar Kurc summed it up clearly. NATO, he said, does not have the production capacity needed for modern threats. European states, including Germany, have been rushing to expand factories and create new supply chains. But this takes time, money, and partners. And that is where Turkey enters the picture.
Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO after the United States. It is a front-line state bordering conflict zones from Syria to the Black Sea. For years, Turkish companies were rarely discussed in Europe’s defense market. Today, that situation has changed. Four major Turkish companies—Baykar, Aselsan, TAI and Roketsan—are among the world’s top 100 arms producers. Turkish drones are being used in Ukraine, and Turkish rifles are being picked up by militaries from Europe to Africa.
Germany sees this rapidly growing industry as both an opportunity and a strategic necessity. When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in October, defense cooperation was one of the biggest topics on the table. In past years, German leaders focused heavily on human rights during meetings with Turkey. This time, the tone was different. The message was simple: Europe needs more partners, not fewer.
From Tension to Cooperation: Why the Relationship Is Changing
The recent warming of ties would have seemed unlikely only a few years ago. In 2017, German troops had to pull their jets out of the Incirlik air base in Turkey because political tensions made cooperation impossible. Turkish operations in Syria—even when German-built tanks were involved—created loud criticism in Berlin. Many feared that NATO’s eastern flank was breaking apart.
But today, the conversation has shifted. A senior official from Germany’s Armed Forces Procurement Office admitted that the “world suddenly seems small.” As relations with Russia collapsed and China became a bigger challenge, Europe discovered that it had fewer reliable partners than it expected. Even long-time allies such as the United States are facing political uncertainty at home. In that environment, Turkey, with its large army and growing arms industry, looks less like a problem and more like a necessary ally.
There is also a practical reason for this change: Europe cannot build enough equipment on its own. Ammunition is one example. Starting in 2027, the Turkish company Repkon is set to produce 155-millimeter artillery shells inside Germany. These shells are standard ammunition for NATO howitzers, many of which are being used on the Ukrainian front. Turkish media described this as a “technology transfer,” which experts call an exaggeration. But even if the scale is smaller than advertised, the symbolism is strong. A NATO ally with rising manufacturing capacity is investing inside Europe to support common defense.
Some critics say that Germany is ignoring democracy problems in Turkey just because it needs weapons and military support. But defense officials respond with a hard-headed argument: Europe does not have the luxury of cutting ties. One German officer put it bluntly. “We are not going to stop buying American weapons because the United States deports people.” In a world where security threats multiply and alliances get weaker, NATO must hold on to the partners it still has.
The Drone Factor: Turkey’s Most Powerful Sales Tool
If one product has changed Turkey’s image in the global arms market, it is the drone. The Bayraktar TB2 combat drone became famous during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where it helped Azerbaijan win rapid victories over Armenian forces. The same drone soon appeared in Ukraine, where it was used in the early stages of the Russian invasion. Videos of TB2 strikes spread online and turned the drone into a symbol of resistance.
Two EU countries, Poland and Romania, have already bought Turkish drones. Italy’s Leonardo has joined forces with Baykar in a shared business. And even inside Germany, senior defense officials say that Turkish drones deserve serious attention. While Europe is still working on its own Eurodrone project—a plan years in the making—Turkey already has two working systems deployed in real battles.
This is exactly the kind of technology gap that worries European planners. Turkey can produce modern, combat-tested equipment at lower prices and faster timelines. Germany, by contrast, has been slowed by long bureaucracy, high costs, and delays. If the two sides cooperate, experts believe both will gain: Turkey can use German sensors and engines, while Germany can gain quicker access to working systems and expand NATO capacity.
For European defense, the real benefit is simple. If Turkey builds more drones, more ammunition, more armored vehicles, and more technology, NATO becomes stronger without relying only on American factories. And after watching Russia’s army tear through Ukraine, many officials believe it is risky for Europe to depend on a single supplier.
A New Place for Turkey in Europe’s Defense Plans
Ankara is not only offering weapons; it wants a formal place inside Europe’s defense strategy. In October, the European Commission acknowledged that Turkey applied to join the SAFE program, which aims to grow the European defense industry using up to 150 billion euros in loans. If approved, Turkish companies would gain direct access to European funding for new military projects.
This application would have been unthinkable a decade ago, when EU-Turkey relations were frozen after failed membership talks and political disputes. Now, with war in Europe and shifting global alliances, both sides appear ready to work together again. For Germany, giving Turkey a role in European defense structures might prevent Ankara from moving toward Russia or China. For Turkey, joining European arms projects brings investment, prestige, and stronger bargaining power.
There are still problems ahead. Human rights concerns have not disappeared. Turkey’s government remains increasingly authoritarian. Its involvement in Syria and Libya remains controversial. And many European citizens dislike the idea of deep cooperation with a government they see as undemocratic. But in the world of defense, leaders are speaking more clearly than before: security comes first.
What This Partnership Means for the Future
The closeness between Germany and Turkey is more than a simple business deal. It reflects a deep change in how Europe understands safety. The old belief that the continent was permanently peaceful has collapsed. Big wars are no longer memories from history books; they are happening once again on European soil. To survive in this new world, European states are looking for strong partners, strong factories, and strong armies.
Turkey brings all three. It has a huge military, a fast-growing industry, and experience in different kinds of war—from counter-terror operations to drone warfare. Germany brings technology, industrial standards, and political weight inside NATO and the EU. Together, they could become one of the most important defense partnerships in Europe.
But this cooperation also comes with questions. Will Europe ignore democratic values when it needs weapons? Will Turkey’s power inside NATO give it more freedom to act in its own regional conflicts? And will this new friendship last if political tensions return?
For now, the answer is simple: both sides need each other. In a world where global conflict is rising, small countries cannot stand alone, and even great powers cannot produce everything at home. The move toward defense cooperation is not about friendship. It is about survival, strategy, and preparing for a dangerous future. Germany and Turkey may not agree on everything, but they both understand this new reality. And as the war in Ukraine continues to shape Europe’s future, their partnership is likely to grow stronger, one factory, one drone, and one deal at a time.
