Russian President Putin claims victory in Ukraine, but battlefield reports show high losses, mounting pressure, and unsustainable advances. Is Russia really winning?
Three Years In: Can Russia Really Win the War in Ukraine?
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the world to believe that his country is winning the war in Ukraine. But while the Kremlin paints a picture of strength and success, reports from the battlefield tell a much different and darker story.
As the war grinds into its fourth year, Russia continues to demand major concessions from Ukraine and the West. Yet despite new offensives in Ukraine’s east and northeast, many military analysts say Russia’s so-called victories come at a heavy price and might not last.
Russia Steps Up Attacks but Faces Big Losses
In recent weeks, Russian forces have launched aggressive new attacks along the northeastern border and in the Donetsk region. Villages in the Sumy area have fallen. Troops are pushing to surround the key city of Pokrovsk. On average, Russia launched 184 assaults per day in May — a 19% increase from April, according to Ukraine’s Deep State intelligence group.
But this sharp increase in attacks has come with serious costs. A U.S. Pentagon report, cited by The Washington Post, estimates that Russia has lost:
- Over 10,000 military vehicles
- 3,000 tanks
- Around 250 aircraft
Much of Russia’s military hardware comes from aging Soviet-era stockpiles. Those supplies are now nearly gone. And current tank production — around 200 units per year — is far too slow to make up for what’s been lost.
Ukrainian Forces Under Pressure but Still Resisting
Ukraine, too, has suffered setbacks. Military analyst Ivan Stupak says that after last year’s bold operation across the border into Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine had to withdraw — weakened by heavy losses of soldiers and equipment.
“Now the front in Donetsk is sagging,” Stupak told The Moscow Times, “and Russia is taking advantage.”
But he also believes Russia is bluffing when it claims it can fight for many more years. “No one can fight forever,” he said. “Russia has limits.”
Tough Talk, But Growing Strains for Russia
While Putin talks tough and calls for a “buffer zone” in border regions, even pro-Russian military experts admit that the Russian army may not have the strength to achieve big victories like capturing the city of Sumy.
BBC analyst Pavel Aksyonov explained that Russia is trying to wear down Ukraine’s forces by targeting weak spots and preventing them from moving reinforcements. But even he doubts Russia has enough power to win major battles.
Meanwhile, Western experts warn that Russia’s war machine is running out of steam. Logistics are under strain. Ammunition is harder to replace. Even with more men and more attacks, Moscow may be pushing its army beyond what it can handle.
Peace Talks? Or Political Theater?
Russia continues to show up to diplomatic talks like the second round of negotiations in Istanbul without slowing down its military operations. Many observers say this is a tactic: pretend to be open to peace, while using the battlefield to gain leverage.
But with Putin demanding sweeping territorial and political concessions, a true ceasefire still looks far away.
The Bottom Line
Putin may believe he is winning. But the ground reality in Ukraine says otherwise.
Yes, Russia is advancing in some areas. But it’s paying a steep price in soldiers, in weapons, and in long-term strength. The war is not over. And if Russia keeps burning through its military resources at this rate, the biggest question may not be when it wins, but how long it can even keep fighting.
