Vanishing Crowds on the Waterfront
On U.S. Seattle’s waterfront, where summer once meant bustling sidewalks and accents from across the border, tour operators now see an unsettling quiet. Joe Koenen, who runs a “pay what you can” walking tour company, says his Canadian customers have nearly disappeared. In past summers, the Toronto Blue Jays’ annual series against the Mariners filled Seattle’s streets with fans in blue caps. This year, Koenen hasn’t seen a single one. Cancellations poured in with a clear message: many Canadians were staying away in protest of U.S. policies and rhetoric.
The financial hit has been severe. Koenen has continued paying his staff but not himself, dipping into personal savings just to keep the business alive. “It’s such a self-inflicted injury,” he laments. Other local operators echo his frustration. John Brink, whose food tours guide visitors through Pike Place Market, has seen a 50% collapse in Canadian clientele. What used to be a reliable, lucrative season is now defined by empty sidewalks and missed opportunities.
Seattle is not alone. Canadian tourists—who represent the largest share of all international visitors to the U.S.—have pulled back sharply. Analysts tracking travel patterns estimate that Canadian arrivals dropped by roughly a quarter between January and July compared to last year, contributing to a projected $12.5 billion loss in international visitor spending in 2025.
A Chilling Message to the World
The downturn is not just about Canadians. Across Europe and Asia, travelers are second-guessing trips to the United States, citing policies on tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and even the introduction of a new $250 “visa integrity fee.” Rob Hawkins, a traveler from the United Kingdom, had planned a 20-day American road trip in 2026. Instead, he and his wife redirected their plans to Japan and South Korea, explaining that the U.S. no longer felt like the cultural beacon of music, cinema, and innovation they once admired. The sight of National Guard patrols in major cities only deepened their unease.
Tourism experts note that such reversals are rare outside of moments of war, health crises, or security emergencies. The U.S., however, finds itself in a unique position: the only major travel economy where international visitation is projected to decline this year. Industry leaders warn this is not a problem of weak demand but of self-sabotage. While other nations are investing heavily in welcoming visitors, Washington has reduced funding for Brand USA, the very program designed to promote the country abroad.
On the ground, misinformation compounds the problem. In California, Adam Duford, who runs Surf City Tours in Santa Monica, saw his bookings collapse after a fake image circulated online claiming the Hollywood sign had burned in wildfires. Even after assuring potential customers that Hollywood remained intact, the damage was done. His revenue this year has dropped nearly 50%. What began as a local rumor spread into a broader perception that American cities are unstable, unsafe, or simply unwelcoming.
Neighbors Choose Elsewhere
The shift is particularly stark with Canada. Traditionally, Canadian travelers have accounted for nearly a third of all foreign arrivals in the U.S., drawn south for baseball, shopping, and family getaways. This year, many chose Mexico, the Caribbean, or Europe instead. Airlines adjusted by cutting more than 90,000 seats on routes from Canada to U.S. destinations in the spring alone.
Seattle has been among the hardest hit, projected to lose more than a quarter of its international visitors this year, largely because Canadians are staying away. Local business leaders are pinning hopes on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which Seattle will co-host with nearby Vancouver. Organizers expect three-quarters of a million people to flow through the city over the three-week tournament. But national tourism analysts caution that even this global spectacle will not erase the losses already sustained.
Cities like Orlando and Las Vegas are also feeling the pinch. Hotel bookings from Canadians have slowed, and tour operators report that some potential visitors are staying away on principle, unwilling to cross the border until political tensions ease. Tourism boards stress that they are ready to welcome Canadians back “when the time is right,” but for now, the message many travelers are hearing is that America is closed.
A Choice Between Decline and Renewal
The irony is that international tourism had not yet fully recovered from the pandemic before this new downturn began. By 2024, overseas arrivals had only reached 91% of pre-pandemic levels, and analysts now estimate the U.S. will not return to 2019 numbers until 2029—three years later than once expected. Domestic tourism, while resilient, has not been strong enough to compensate.
For small operators like Koenen in Seattle or Duford in Los Angeles, that recovery timeline feels like a lifetime. They watch colleagues in Mexico, Europe, and Asia reap the benefits of redirected Canadian and European tourism, while they tighten budgets and cut personal pay. The consequences ripple outward: fewer tours booked means fewer restaurant meals, fewer hotel stays, and fewer dollars in local economies that once thrived on international arrivals.
The world has not stopped traveling—it has simply started choosing elsewhere. Whether the U.S. remains sidelined or reclaims its position as a premier destination depends less on global demand than on the decisions made at home.
