“It’s unbelievable! We’re approaching a general election. The country feels broken. Our economy grappling. But most German media seem obsessed with Trump, Trump, Trump!” says Iris Mühler, an engineering teacher from northeastern Germany. She’s one of the voters I spoke to before the February snap elections. And she’s not alone in this thought. Even with its struggles, especially in big EU countries like Germany and France, Europe has been focused on Trump ever since he won in 2020.
Europe had a rough time during his last presidency, and many are worried that a second term for Trump might be even worse. With major European powers already facing challenges like political and economic issues in France and Germany, and the EU falling behind the US and China in global competitiveness, Europe is in a difficult situation. So, is Europe prepared for another round with Donald Trump, or is it unprepared once again?
A Businessman Who Doesn’t Value Alliances
In matters of trade and defense, Trump acts more like a businessman making deals than a US leader who cares about the long-standing partnerships between the US and Europe formed after World War II. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that Trump doesn’t believe in win-win situations. She observed that he views the world in terms of winners and losers and believes Europe has taken advantage of the US for years, which he believes needs to stop.
European leaders have been shocked since Trump won his second presidential term. Instead of attacking rivals like China, he’s turned his criticism toward European and Canadian allies. He’s even threatened to pull out of NATO, which has provided Europe with security for decades. He’s also said he would “encourage” Russia to do whatever it wants with European countries if they don’t increase their defense spending.
When it comes to trade, Trump still holds grudges against the EU, just as he did during his first term. The EU exports much more to the US than it imports. In January 2022, the EU’s trade surplus with the US was €15.4 billion (£13 billion). Trump’s reaction? He threatens to impose new tariffs of 10-20% on all foreign goods with even higher tariffs on specific products like cars. This would be disastrous for Germany, which depends heavily on exports, particularly in the car industry. Germany’s economy is already struggling, having shrunk by 0.2% last year. As the largest economy in the eurozone, any problems in Germany could hurt the entire region.
Germany Is Trump’s Main Target
Merkel has pointed out that Trump seemed especially hostile toward Germany during his previous term. Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, believes that Germany will continue to be “at the top of Trump’s hit list.” “He’s made comments like not wanting to see Mercedes-Benz cars in New York. It’s absurd because most of those cars are made in Alabama,” Bond explains. “Trump has often been more aggressive toward Germany than any other European country. Things might improve for Germany with a new conservative government, but I wouldn’t bet on it.” The UK hopes to avoid the full impact of Trump’s tariffs, as its trade imbalance with the US is smaller, but it could still feel the effects of an EU-US trade conflict.
Is Europe Ready for What’s Coming?
Trump’s tough approach shouldn’t be a surprise to his allies, considering his first term. The real question now is how much of his tough talk is just empty threats and how much is an actual warning of things to come. Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund of the US, believes Trump’s tariff threats are serious and that Europe is unprepared. “They’re not ready. No one is. His approach is shaking up key parts of the global economy that have been in place for a long time.”
The European Commission says it’s ready for whatever Trump throws at Europe when he returns to the White House. Europe, as a major trade power, is prepared to face challenges. But Lesser warns that the biggest threat could be if Trump starts a trade war with China. This could disrupt Europe’s supply chains and flood the European market with cheap Chinese products, hurting local businesses. “For Europe, it’s a double risk: first from what America might do, then from what China might do in response.”
Trade, Defense, and Elon Musk’s Influence
Things are further complicated by the fact that for Trump, trade and defense aren’t separate issues. Recently, he refused to rule out using economic or military pressure on Denmark if it didn’t hand over Greenland. His vice president even hinted that US defense of Europe might depend on whether EU regulators back off from investigating X, the social media platform owned by Trump’s ally, Elon Musk.
Musk himself has gotten involved in European politics, criticizing leaders like Keir Starmer in the UK and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He even suggested that Germany’s far-right party, the AfD, might be the country’s only hope, which shocked many. However, polls show that Musk’s controversial opinions don’t seem to change public opinion in Europe. Trump and Musk are both widely disliked across the continent, according to a recent poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Flattering Trump and Offering Deals
European leaders have different ways of dealing with Trump. Some try to flatter his ego, like French President Emmanuel Macron, who quickly congratulated Trump on his re-election and invited him to the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Macron had previously impressed Trump by inviting him to the grand Bastille Day celebrations in 2017. The UK knows that Trump has a soft spot for Scotland and the British royal family, particularly his relationship with Prince William.
Other leaders prefer to offer financial incentives. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has suggested that European leaders should negotiate with Trump by offering him deals instead of retaliating with tariffs. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has talked about buying more US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy.
Should Europe Become More Independent?
Macron has long argued for “strategic autonomy,” meaning Europe should become more self-sufficient. “Europe could die if we don’t make the right choices,” he said recently. The COVID pandemic showed Europe’s dependence on Chinese imports, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe’s over-reliance on Russian energy. Macron is now warning that the US may prioritize its own interests over Europe’s. “America’s priorities are the US first, then China, and Europe isn’t a top priority,” he said. Trump’s return has pushed European leaders to reconsider their vulnerabilities.
The Defense Challenge
On defense, Trump’s call for Europe to spend more is widely accepted, though the specifics are still debated. Trump focuses on increasing GDP spending, while Europeans are more concerned with making defense spending more effective and integrated for greater security. Macron supports a joint EU defense policy, highlighting the weaknesses exposed by the war in Ukraine, where Europe’s fragmented defense efforts have caused problems.
There are concerns that Trump might not continue to support military aid to Ukraine the way the Biden administration has. Next month, EU leaders will meet with the UK to discuss improving their military cooperation. Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s defense chief, stresses the need for unity: “We need to act together. That’s when we’re strong, and that’s when we’re taken seriously on the world stage.”
Is Europe Weaker Now?
Some experts argue that Europe is in a weaker, more divided position to handle Trump 2.0 compared to 2016. This is partly true: economic growth is slow, politics are unstable, and populist parties are gaining ground in many countries. However, Europe has shown resilience in the face of crises like Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. While challenges remain, the EU has stayed together better than many expected.
Since Brexit, the UK has been considered a close ally of the EU, and NATO has become stronger with Sweden and Finland joining after Russia invaded Ukraine. Perhaps this time, Trump will find fewer issues with Europe. It now spends more on defense, is more cautious about China, and is leaning more right-wing politically. But the big question is whether European leaders will still stand firm against Trump if he crosses a line on issues like human rights or freedom of speech. The next chapter in Europe-US relations is yet to be written.
