Written by Sajjad Hossain Adib, a student of University of Science and Technology, Chattogram (USTC)
Introduction
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, mostly known as NATO, was founded on 4 April 1949. It was created to counter the Soviet Union and to stop the spread of communism in Europe. After the collapse of the USSR, Western leaders told the Soviet president that NATO would not extend its territory one inch eastward. But Western leaders did not keep their promise. They extended their influence by accepting 16 countries from Eastern Europe and the Balkans, which is against their treaty. After the rise of Putin, he made the foundation of Russia strong and has made its ability enough to counter the West.
Things Happening Between Russia and the West
Russia attacked Ukraine two times. In 2014, they captured Crimea, and the second war is continuing from 24 February 2022. The war has been happening for almost 3 and 1/2 years. According to the President of Russia, almost 28,595 sanctions have been imposed on Russia after 2022. But all the sanctions have no effect on Russia’s economy.
Revealing the Weakness of the West
In recent times, Russia accelerated tension among NATO allies. The appearance of 19 drones over Poland and fighter jets above Estonia set off alarms across Europe. This action is recognised as a dangerous new escalation in the Kremlin’s hybrid war against the West. To U.S. allies in Europe, this pattern is unimaginable. This action also revealed the capabilities of Russia against the West. According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, they have never seen such violations of NATO. While Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk acclaimed the incident as the closest conflict since World War II. According to Polish authorities, this action was a test of NATO differences.
Reaction of West Leaders
Now, the question is how NATO will handle the situation as their weakness has been known by the world. Former US Army Europe commander General Ben Hodges mentioned the operation as a rehearsal with the intention of checking NATO response times and capabilities. Again, Russia also violated NATO airspace by entering Estonia’s airspace using aircraft like MiG-31 for almost 12 minutes. But NATO failed to take action against it. When reporters asked about the defence of Poland and the Baltic states if Russia attacks, Trump replied that he would take action. Mike Walz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, acclaimed at a Security Council meeting that there are two possibilities about this incident: either Russia does not have full control of its fighter planes and drones, or it wants to escalate. He also mentioned that they are not prepared to face drones using F-35s and F-22s.
The Reasons Russia Is Dominating the War
Like other NATO members, Poland has invested highly in air defence systems such as Patriots and F-35 warplanes. But the Russia and Ukraine war disclosed a new type of war, which needs alternative solutions. In this war, Russia has prioritised the mass production of drones, and the number of drones involved in this war has risen largely. As a result, NATO countries remain unprepared to address the new challenges posed by these large-scale drone swarms of Russia. Moreover, according to Ukraine defense intelligence, the production cost of each drone is roughly 10,000 dollars, while NATO countries are using top-level jet fighters like F-35, F-16, Rafale etc. These cost multimillion dollars.
Reality of Russia and Ukraine War
Robert Tollast, a researcher at London’s Royal United Services Institute, noted that NATO can counter large-scale drone threats by taking the example of Israel’s response to Iranian attacks, but the cost is very high. According to many experts, the Western defence systems were not designed to tackle asymmetric drone threats. CEO of UK-based MARSS, Johannes Pinl, mentioned that they have technology to tackle Russia’s drone attacks, such as AI-enabled reusable interceptor drones. But NATO did not upgrade its drone technology and is still relying on outdated methods from the 1980s.
The Preparation of NATO in This Regard
The war between Russia and Ukraine accelerated the development and adaptation of drone technology. Startups like Portugal’s Takever and Latvia’s Origin Robotics are working on developing new drone systems. Even the US Department of War is accelerating its drone capabilities. Meanwhile, Russia is producing 5,500 drones per month, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
Conclusion
Even though NATO started producing drones, they are costlier than Russia’s and also need to be battle-proven. In that case, Russia is one step ahead of them. As a result, the war is going in favour of Russia because winter comes every year.
