So here we are—another grand diplomatic gathering, this time in the opulent halls of Saudi Arabia’s Diriyah Palace. The players? Top officials from the United States and Russia, nodding and posturing while attempting to sketch out a roadmap for peace in Ukraine. The catch? Kyiv isn’t invited. Neither is Europe.
In what can only be described as a political high-wire act, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sat across the table from each other, with a carefully curated entourage of national security advisers, envoys, and economic heavyweights. On the American side, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff made an appearance. Russia, not to be outdone, sent Putin’s close aide Yury Ushakov and sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev—the same Dmitriev who brokered a prisoner swap between Washington and Moscow not too long ago.
Ukraine Left in the Cold
Let’s not sugarcoat it: This is a diplomatic snub of epic proportions for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government claims it knew nothing about these talks, which, if true, raises some uncomfortable questions about America’s commitment to its European allies. The optics are terrible—U.S. and Russian officials discussing Ukraine’s fate while its leaders sit on the sidelines.
And Europe? Well, they’re fuming. France, Germany, and other key EU nations scrambled for an emergency meeting in Paris, desperate to figure out their next move. Zelensky himself has taken to warning European leaders that the era of guaranteed U.S. support is over, urging them to form their own military alliances instead of relying on Washington’s goodwill.
What’s at Stake?
For Russia, these talks are a chance to solidify gains. Lavrov has openly stated that the aim is to end the “abnormal period” in relations between the U.S. and Russia—because, apparently, invading a neighboring country is just a diplomatic hiccup. More importantly, this meeting could pave the way for something even bigger: a direct sit-down between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. And given Trump’s track record, that possibility should set off alarm bells across Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
Meanwhile, Washington’s motives are murkier. Is this about finding a genuine path to peace, or is it a calculated pivot away from Ukraine, in the hopes of shifting focus to other pressing matters? The Biden administration has been walking a tightrope between supporting Kyiv and managing its own domestic political headaches. A negotiated settlement—especially one that favors Russia—would be a bitter pill for Ukraine but might align with certain factions in Washington looking for a geopolitical reset.
The Bigger Picture
Of course, this isn’t just about Ukraine. The war has become a global fault line, affecting everything from energy markets to military alliances. The mere fact that Saudi Arabia is hosting these talks speaks volumes—Riyadh is positioning itself as a key player in global diplomacy, eager to mediate between two superpowers while maintaining its own strategic interests.
Then there’s China, the silent observer in all of this. Beijing has been cautiously watching these developments, weighing its next move. If the U.S. and Russia come to some sort of agreement that weakens Western resolve on Ukraine, it could embolden China’s own geopolitical ambitions, particularly regarding Taiwan.
What Happens Next?
The reality is, even if some vague framework emerges from these talks, any actual peace deal will be a long, painful process—if it happens at all. Ukraine isn’t going to accept terms dictated behind closed doors by Washington and Moscow. And Europe, already feeling the sting of being sidelined, won’t take this lightly either.
For now, all eyes are on Saudi Arabia, where high-level officials are busy making statements about “taking each other’s interests into account.” But let’s be honest—realpolitik is the name of the game, and when the dust settles, the biggest question will be whether Ukraine’s future is being decided without Ukraine itself.
