In March 2025, Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Shara, launched a caretaker administration tasked with steering one of Syria’s most perilous transitions. Five decades of autocratic rule under the Assad dynasty have reduced Syria to a nation on the edge ravaged by war, cleaved by sectarian fault lines, and scarred by economic ruin. Shara’s cabinet, which features a Christian woman as social affairs minister, a Kurdish minister of education, a Druze agriculture minister, and an Alawite minister of transport, is an intentional nod to inclusiveness. But with Syria poised between hope and anarchy, the question is: Can Shara, an Islamist with a tainted record, unite a nation on the cusp of implosion?
A Leader Under Scrutiny
Shara’s rise is improbable and controversial. Once a figure on Syria’s jihadist scene, he has evolved into a pragmatic politician, guiding Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from militancy to governance. Shara’s evolution is part of a broader trend among Syrian jihadis who are turning to politics to stay relevant, Jerome Drevon, crisis analyst at the International Crisis Group, writes in Foreign Affairs. His cabinet is a skillfully built mix of ministers from a range of minorities long suppressed or persecuted in Syria’s deadly conflict: Christians, Kurds, Druze, Alawites.
Yet such inclusion on paper and trust-building are different issues. Syria’s minorities are wary of Shara’s motives, sensitive to his Islamist past and HTS’s autocratic habits in Idlib. So too is the rest of the world. Arabs and Western countries, soiled by years of dealing with Bashar al-Assad’s regime, require evidence that Shara can rule with a non-majoritarian approach that does not indulge in cronyism. His appointees are a step in this direction but may end up being symbolic if not followed by policies that deliver security, services, and justice.
How Extensive is Syria’s Crisis?
Syria’s trauma cuts deep. Its conflict that began in 2011 killed hundreds of thousands, displaced over 12 million, and reduced cities to ruin. Bashir al-Assad’s later 2024 death closed one book of suffering but opened another of uncertainty. Syria now faces a trinity of crises: humanitarian, financial, and political.
Humanitarian Crisis: Over 6 million Syrians remain refugees, with a further 6 million displaced persons. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Jesse Marks and Hazem Rihawi stress the need to resettle these people. Homeless, schoolless, jobless, returnees are an inflammable bomb of grievance. Reconstruction of roads, water mains, hospitals is billions of aid short, but foreign donors hesitate, not wanting to bet on Syria’s stability, or Shara’s leadership, which is untested.
Economic Collapse: Syria’s economy is in ruins. Industry has been laid to waste by war, corruption, and sanctions, with unemployment and hyperinflation besetting ordinary citizens. Shara’s government must stabilize the currency, restore trade, and entice investment, all in a web of Assad regime-linked sanctions. Failing to deliver such basics as petrol and electricity can deny popular support, fuelling unrest.
Political Fragmentation: Syria’s religious and ethnic mix — Sunni Arabs, Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and so on — was a strength, but also a curse. The Assads exploited such differences, playing one off another in their own interest to stay in power. Shara must reverse that record, but his Islamist bent is suspect. Can he govern as a rallying force, or will he succumb to factionalism’s temptation?
Steering through a Geopolitical Minefield
Syria’s fate is not in Syria’s own hand. Regional powers—Turkey, Iran, Russia, and, to a lesser extent, Israel and Gulf powers—have staked areas of influence with competing agendas. Turkey aligns with Sunni forces and claims Kurdish ground, Iran struggles to uphold its Shia axis through proxies. Russia, weakened though still present, clings to its Tartus naval base. America, with a minimal troop presence in northeast Syria, is asked to vacate so that Robert S. Ford argues, to avoid conflict with Turkey and to negotiate with Shara’s regime.
Shara must walk a tightrope. Getting too near any one power risks estranging the others, but barring outside influence is impossible due to Syria’s reliance on aid and security assurances. Dana Stroul, writing in an opinion piece in Foreign Affairs, envisions a regional order that circumscribes Iranian ambition, but one that is premised on Syria being able to project sovereignty—a high expectation of a nascent regime.
A Path to Stability?
Many priorities for Shara administration to break Syria’s cycle of persecution have been proposed by analysts, according to Marwan Muasher. Resettlement must be followed by the possibility of finding work. Rebuilding houses is useless with no job or school to sustain communities. International donors like Gulf countries and the UN could play an important role but only if their money isn’t stolen by corruption or channelled to HTS loyalists.
Second, justice is not an option. The Assad regime’s crimes—the torture, the mass killings, the chemical warfare—must have accountability. Patrick Vinck and others recommend reparations and truth commissions to heal wounds and rule out revenge. Shara’s willingness to engage this past will indicate whether he chooses reconciliation over comfort.
Third, there must be governance transparency. HTS’s record of authoritarianism in Idlib, from stifling dissent to enacting draconian social mores, hangs over him. Shara must prove that his administration can tolerate pluralism, protect civil society, and extend rights to minorities and to women. Preliminary steps, like filling various ministerial posts with people from different backgrounds, are promising but must lead to policy.
