During 15 months of war, Netanyahu led Israel’s enemies across the region have been badly weakened. Hostages from Israel have begun to be brought home from captivity in Gaza, and the White House has seen the return of Netanyahu’s good friend, Donald Trump.
Netanyahu may have little time to enjoy his improving fortunes. His hard-line coalition partners have threatened to topple the government if he does not resume Israel’s war in Gaza when the six-week ceasefire with Hamas expires. This situation could leave Netanyahu torn between his erstwhile allies at home and a U.S. president who wants to end the region’s wars.
War-Time Comeback
After the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that triggered the war, Netanyahu’s popularity plunged. The failure of Israel’s security and intelligence services to prevent the deadliest attack in its 75-year history and the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust was noted. Scores of hostages were held by Hamas in Gaza, and the nation grieved. However, Netanyahu regained his footing, and now military successes across the region are being boasted of by him. Israeli forces inflicted heavy losses on Hamas in a 15-month offensive, killing tens of thousands of people, including entire families, causing widespread damage, and displacing 90% of the population. Gaza will take years to recover.
At the same time, rocket fire from Hezbollah militants was responded to by Israel with an air and ground offensive that badly weakened the Lebanese group. Hezbollah was dealt a tough blow, which included a complex operation to explode pagers and walkie-talkies. This appears to have contributed to the downfall of President Bashar Assad in neighboring Syria—one of Hezbollah’s closest allies and its main conduit for arms. Iran, the main patron of Hezbollah and Assad, has seen its regional sphere of influence weaken. At the same time, Israeli airstrikes have reportedly taken out the country’s air defenses and other sensitive targets.
Trump has returned to the White House, bringing the likelihood of even tougher pressure on Iran, along with renewed efforts to deliver a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, a rival of Iran and the Arab world’s richest and most powerful country. As a result, many Israelis, including Netanyahu, consider the country to be in a much stronger strategic position than at the outset of the war, albeit at a heavy price. ‘We have made it clear to our enemies and to the entire world that when the people of Israel stand together, there is no force that can break us,’ Netanyahu said on the eve of the ceasefire this week.
Netanyahu’s Political Battle Amid Ceasefires
Just as Israel’s battlefield gains could benefit Netanyahu, he is fighting for political survival. Throughout the war, a ‘total victory’ against Hamas was promised by Netanyahu—the group’s governing and military capabilities were to be destroyed, and all of the hostages remaining in Gaza were to be brought home.
The ceasefire falls short of these goals. Just one-third of the more than 90 remaining hostages are set to be brought home by Israel over six weeks. The fate of the others remains unclear. The first hostage release illustrated how elusive total victory will be. Moments after the ceasefire took effect, Hamas men, armed and no longer hiding, returned to the streets. Red Cross vehicles carrying three released hostages were escorted by masked militants, and the delivery of international humanitarian aid is claimed to be protected by the Hamas-run government.
Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including dozens involved in deadly attacks on Israelis, were agreed to be released by Israel, which angered Netanyahu’s hard-line base. The terms of the deal led Itamar Ben-Gvir, a hard-line politician, to pull his party out of Netanyahu’s coalition, leaving the prime minister with a narrow majority in parliament. On Monday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, another hard-liner, vowed to follow suit if the war is not resumed by Netanyahu when the 42-day truce expires in early March. The government would be left without a parliamentary majority by Smotrich’s departure, almost certainly triggering new elections.
Netanyahu’s High-Stakes Ceasefire Gambit
The war will be renewed by Netanyahu if demands are not met by Hamas in negotiations over the second phase of the ceasefire, which aims to end the war. The talks are set to begin in less than two weeks. ‘If we need to go back to the fighting, it will be done in new ways and with great force,’ Netanyahu said.
But achieving this may not be so easy. The nation’s attention has been captured by the emotional scenes of the three young women freed by Hamas reuniting with their families. Halting this process without the full return of hostages would be difficult in a country where their families have widespread sympathy. After 15 months of fighting and a steady stream of soldiers dying in action, the public—and the army—are tired. The battlefield in Gaza is also changing. Nearly 2 million displaced people in Gaza have been allowed by the first phase of the ceasefire to leave crowded tent camps and return to what remains of their homes. Amid masses of civilians, Hamas will be allowed to regroup.
Israel, and Netanyahu himself, are already accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity at the world’s top courts over the civilian toll in Gaza, making the resumption of a military offensive especially challenging.
Trump’s Role in Netanyahu’s Ceasefire Deal
Netanyahu was pressed by Trump to reach the ceasefire deal even before taking office, and the involvement of his new Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, appears to have been critical in wrapping up the agreement.
On the first day of Trump’s second administration, mixed signals of what may lie ahead were given by him. In his inaugural speech, he described himself as ‘a peacemaker and a unifier.’ But later, it was said by him that he was not confident the ceasefire would hold. ‘That’s not our war. It’s their war,’ was said by him. After Trump was angered four years ago by Netanyahu congratulating Joe Biden on his 2020 election victory, efforts are being made by Netanyahu to line up Trump’s support. Among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump after his swearing-in was him. In an effusive message, Trump was thanked by him for his help in freeing hostages, and it was said by him that he looked forward to working together to destroy Hamas.
