For more than three years, the war in Ukraine has raged, with no end in sight. Yet, amidst the devastation and constant turmoil, a glimmer of hope has emerged. On Tuesday, Ukraine agreed to a U.S. proposal for an immediate ceasefire—one that would see fighting stop for 30 days. But, as with all things in international diplomacy, the devil is in the details. The big question now: Will Russia sign up?
A Ceasefire on the Table — For Now
In a joint statement, both the Ukrainian and American governments revealed a breakthrough: a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, contingent on Russia’s approval. The announcement follows an intense eight-hour negotiation session held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, playing key roles.
Zelenskyy wasted no time in expressing his cautious optimism, stating on X (formerly Twitter): “Ukraine is ready to accept this proposal—this is a positive step.” He added, however, that the ball is now in Russia’s court. Will Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to a temporary ceasefire, or will he drag his feet, as he’s done before?
The Trump Factor: Will Putin Listen?
President Donald Trump, always a man of bold statements, has said he will personally speak to Putin about the ceasefire. The notion of a conversation between Trump and Putin is an uncomfortable reminder of their previous relationships—full of showy promises and questionable outcomes. As Trump put it himself, “It takes two to tango.” Indeed, it does. But does Putin even want to step onto the dance floor?
There’s no doubt Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield. With the help of allies like North Korea, China, and Iran, Russia has made significant strides in Ukraine. Despite this, Putin’s public response has been lukewarm. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, spoke to TASS, hinting at potential future talks. “We do not rule out contacts with U.S. representatives over the next few days.” Not exactly a rousing endorsement of peace.
What’s At Stake: Humanitarian Aid or a Bigger Agenda?
The 30-day truce could set the stage for vital humanitarian efforts. The agreement outlines the possibility of exchanging prisoners of war, releasing detained civilians, and even bringing Ukrainian children back to their homeland after being forcibly transferred by Russian forces. These are crucial first steps.
But let’s not kid ourselves. The ceasefire is not a peace deal—it’s just a temporary pause. The real work will begin once fighting halts, as both sides will need to enter negotiations about the future of Ukraine. Will they come to an agreement, or will the truce crumble under the weight of competing interests?
U.S. and Ukraine: A Relationship in Flux
One of the more significant developments in the lead-up to the ceasefire was the U.S.’s decision to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine. After months of uncertainty and a drastic cutoff of military aid, this is a sharp reversal. What’s behind this shift? Could it be a strategic move by the U.S. to ensure Ukraine has the necessary resources to secure a lasting peace? Or is it simply a reflection of the delicate balancing act the U.S. is now performing between supporting Ukraine and attempting to keep Putin at the negotiation table?
No Security Guarantees — Not Yet
It’s important to note that Trump has made it clear: the U.S. will not be providing security guarantees for Ukraine’s future. Instead, he sees this responsibility falling to Europe. This may be a pragmatic stance, but it’s also a hard pill for many to swallow. The idea of a strong European-led peacekeeping mission is attractive, but will European nations—many of whom have been reluctant to directly intervene—be willing to take on the challenge?
Zelenskyy himself has called for European partners to be involved in the peace process, but it’s unclear whether the U.S. agrees with this point. The Europeans, particularly French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are keen on getting more involved. Starmer has already planned a meeting for Saturday to discuss building a “coalition of the willing.” This coalition would potentially include countries willing to send troops or provide other support for an international mission to uphold a permanent truce. But without U.S. boots on the ground, will this coalition be able to convince both sides that it can deliver real peace?
Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity — Still On the Table
One of the key issues in any potential peace talks will be the status of the territories occupied by Russia. While the ceasefire agreement doesn’t directly address this issue, it’s almost certain that any permanent settlement will involve negotiations over these contested regions.
As Rubio warned Ukraine before the talks, concessions will likely need to be made—including on territory. Yet, during the talks in Jeddah, this issue didn’t even come up. According to a Ukrainian official, “The topic of ceding territory did not even come up.” Still, this is a matter that cannot be ignored for long. The future of Crimea, Donbas, and other occupied territories will be the real sticking point in any peace talks.
The Road Ahead: Will This Ceasefire Hold?
So, where does all of this leave us? Will this ceasefire be the first step toward lasting peace, or will it fizzle out, leaving Ukraine to continue its battle against Russia’s advances? The ceasefire is a temporary measure—a brief respite in a long and bloody conflict. The real work of securing peace will come after the truce expires, assuming both sides can reach an agreement on the terms of a permanent settlement.
For now, though, we wait. The ceasefire may be just a brief pause in the fighting, but it’s an important moment. For Ukraine and for the world, the hope is that it could lead to something more—something lasting, something real. But in this game of international diplomacy, nothing is ever guaranteed. As the saying goes, “It takes two to tango,” but will Russia take the first step?
Let’s hope for peace—but we should all be ready for the inevitable twists and turns that will come with it.
