European leaders gathered in Brussels this week with grand declarations of ramping up defense spending and solidifying support for Ukraine. Sounds impressive, right? Except there’s a problem—none of this was entirely by choice. The United States, historically the backbone of European security, has started pulling back, leaving Europe to fend for itself. That’s the real story here: a continent scrambling to fill a void left by Washington’s shifting priorities.
The official line? 26 European leaders signed a pledge calling for a Ukraine peace deal that “respects Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” Hungary, ever the dissenter, refused to sign. But the more pressing development is a separate commitment by all 27 leaders to unlock billions for defense. This is Europe’s moment to prove it can stand on its own militarily. The problem? Many of these countries have never actually done that.
The Money Question: Who Pays for Europe’s Security?
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has floated a proposal for loans worth 150 billion euros ($162 billion). Sounds like a lot, but let’s get real—defense spending isn’t just about throwing money around. It’s about political will, strategy, and an actual commitment to military capability. And so far, Europe has a spotty record.
French President Emmanuel Macron, never one to hold back, declared that the EU would send over $33 billion to Ukraine, using frozen Russian assets. That’s a start, but it doesn’t address the bigger elephant in the room: can Europe sustain this level of support without U.S. backing? And let’s not forget—Russia is watching, waiting for any sign of European hesitation.
Ukraine’s Zelensky: Thankful but Worried
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a direct appeal to European leaders, thanking them for sticking by Ukraine even as his relationship with Washington frays. His words were gracious, but the subtext was clear: Kyiv is watching America’s retreat with deep concern.
And then there’s former U.S. President Donald Trump, once again hammering NATO countries for not paying their “fair share.” Whether one agrees with him or not, he has a point: Europe has long relied on U.S. military power. Now, with America stepping back, the EU has to decide if it will step up—or step aside.
Can Europe Convince Trump to Stay in the Game?
Von der Leyen insisted that “peace from a position of strength” is the only way forward. A nice phrase, but it assumes the U.S. is still invested in European security. Trump, however, has made it clear that his priority isn’t propping up NATO allies who won’t spend enough on their own defense.
Macron admitted as much in a blunt statement: “The United States has changed its position on this war.” Translation? Europe is entering uncharted territory, and no one knows how long American patience will last.
Hungary Stands Alone—Again
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was the lone holdout in signing the Ukraine declaration, though he did sign onto the defense spending commitment. The man isn’t shy about his views—he’s openly skeptical of endless support for Kyiv. While most European leaders back Ukraine, Orban’s stance highlights a deeper divide: not everyone in the EU sees Ukraine’s war as their fight.
European Council President Antonio Costa didn’t mince words, saying Hungary had “isolated” itself. But here’s the thing—Orban’s resistance echoes sentiments found in parts of Europe that are growing wary of an open-ended commitment to Ukraine. Whether the EU admits it or not, that sentiment is gaining traction.
War Drags On, Diplomacy Moves at a Crawl
As European leaders talked strategy, Russia continued its assault on Ukraine. Zelensky arrived in Brussels fresh off a Russian missile attack on his hometown of Kryvyi Rih. While the West debates military aid, Ukraine is still taking the hits.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remain sluggish. The EU’s latest round of talks follows a London summit where European nations discussed a ceasefire plan. The idea? Present a proposal to the U.S. before Trump or Russia forces one on Kyiv. But given Europe’s history of internal bickering, one has to wonder: can they actually agree on anything substantial before it’s too late?
The Defense Spending Debate: Who’s Really Paying Their Share?
A senior EU diplomat put it bluntly—some countries simply aren’t paying their “fair share” when it comes to Ukraine aid or defense spending. This isn’t a new problem. NATO has long struggled with member states failing to meet their 2% GDP defense spending commitments. The reality? Some of the same countries reluctant to support Ukraine are also the ones skimping on military investment.
Von der Leyen unveiled a plan to “rearm Europe,” proposing up to 800 billion euros ($862 billion) in funding. “We are in an era of rearmament,” she declared. A bold statement, but the question remains—will Europe actually follow through, or is this just political theater?
The Ceasefire Plan: Who Puts Boots on the Ground?
A ceasefire sounds great in theory, but enforcing it is another story. One idea gaining traction? A European peacekeeping force. The UK, France, and Turkey are likely candidates to lead such an effort, according to EU insiders.
But there’s hesitation from Eastern European nations like Poland and Finland. Their fear? If they commit troops to Ukraine, they could leave their own borders vulnerable. Poland, in particular, has been vocal about the risks of drawing troops away from its Russian-facing border.
A European official summed it up bluntly: “You don’t want to empty the eastern border.” If there’s a peacekeeping force, expect it to come mostly from Western European countries that feel less directly threatened by Moscow.
The Clock Is Ticking
The big question now? Can Europe move fast enough to make a difference? Talks are ongoing about confidence-building measures, but some officials admit that even a limited ceasefire by Easter would be “challenging.” A full ceasefire across Ukraine? “Completely unrealistic.”
Meanwhile, Russia isn’t waiting for Europe to sort out its internal debates. Every delay, every disagreement among EU leaders, is an advantage for Moscow.
Final Thought: Is Europe Ready for This?
For decades, Europe has leaned on the U.S. for security, while devoting its own budgets to social programs and economic growth. That era is over. The United States is stepping back, and Europe now faces a moment of truth. It can either rise to the occasion and take control of its own security—or continue making grand speeches while hoping Washington changes its mind.
Either way, one thing is clear: Ukraine’s survival depends on whether Europe turns its words into action. And right now, that’s still an open question.
