For over four months in 2025, Europe has been a geopolitical piñata. U.S. President Donald Trump has hammered the EU with tariffs, security demands, and social jabs, treating it like a disobedient vassal. Across the Pacific, the EU’s overtures to China—offering political goodwill for economic perks—have flopped. Beijing’s not biting, leaving Brussels empty-handed. Now, a chorus of European leaders, led by figures like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, is pushing for “strategic autonomy”—a fancy term for not needing the U.S., China, or Russia to hold the bloc’s hand.
“A new global order is coming this decade,” von der Leyen declared last week. “If we don’t shape it, we’ll just eat the consequences. History doesn’t forgive dawdlers.” European Commission Speech
French President Emmanuel Macron, the poster child for this idea, put it bluntly at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore: “We want to cooperate, but we’re done being told what’s allowed by one guy’s whims.” His not-so-subtle dig at Trump underscores the urgency—Europe needs its own muscle, from defense to tech, to avoid being a superpower’s doormat. Shangri-La Dialogue
The Dream of Independence
In Brussels, “strategic autonomy” is the buzzword du jour, but it’s less a plan and more a vibe. Everyone agrees Europe needs to wean itself off U.S. tanks, Chinese rare earths, and Russian gas. The catch? No one agrees on how. A French diplomat, rolling their eyes at Macron’s grandstanding, summed it up: “We can’t go it alone. We need the U.S., China—probably both. Only a fool thinks otherwise.”
Businesses are feeling the squeeze. Jason Collins, head of the European Business Organisation, says firms are spooked by the U.S. and China’s “de-risking” demands. “Nobody knows what next week holds,” he said. “It’s chilling investment. Some companies are going full U.S.-only, like China’s ‘in China for China’ playbook.” European Business Organisation Report The fear is clear: pick a side, or get crushed.
Take ASML, Europe’s tech crown jewel. The Dutch company dominates the market for machines that etch tiny circuits onto semiconductors. But U.S. export controls, which the Dutch government reluctantly adopted, have banned ASML from selling its best gear to China. Sebastian Heyn, ASML’s geopolitics chief, sounded weary at the Brussels Economic Security Forum: “We need Europe to shield us from political pressure, but in a spirit of partnership. Choke points hurt everyone—both sides have them, so let’s not strangle each other.” Brussels Economic Security Forum
Credibility on Life Support
Here’s the rub: Europe talks a big game but swings like a feather. Despite claims of cutting ties with Russia post-Ukraine invasion, the EU spent more on Russian energy and raw materials last year than it sent in military aid to Kyiv. That’s not independence—it’s hypocrisy. Henry Farrell, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins, didn’t mince words at the same forum: “Europe’s got no credibility. It’s got anti-coercion tools it never uses, red lines it never enforces. The ‘Brussels effect’—where EU rules shape the world—is dead.” Underground Empire Book
Farrell’s point stings. Europe’s been kicked around by both the U.S. and China, and its leaders seem too timid to punch back. Trump’s bullying—tariffs here, NATO threats there—meets shrugs, not fists. China’s refusal to budge on trade issues, like rare earth exports, gets polite EU statements, not action. An upcoming EU-China summit in Beijing looms, and insiders worry leaders will settle for a weak deal, further denting Europe’s street cred. One official, speaking anonymously, griped: “China knows we won’t hit hard. They keep us in our place.” EU-China Summit Preview
“Europe’s got an EACO trait—Europe Always Chickens Out,” Farrell quipped, half-laughing, half-wincing.
The China Conundrum
China’s a particular sore spot. EU officials have drawn “red lines”—like no arms to Russia—but done nothing when crossed. A recent Trump-Xi call sparked fears that China might lift rare earth export controls for the U.S. but keep them for Europe, a move one source called a deliberate jab to “keep us in line.” Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, recalled a 2018 anecdote where Xi told Western execs: “You turn the other cheek; we punch back.” Le Grand Continent Article It’s a lesson Europe’s yet to learn.
Setser argues that without a willingness to retaliate, Europe’s negotiations—whether with Trump’s tariffs or China’s trade games—are doomed to fizzle. “You can’t just beg for tariff rollbacks while changing nothing,” he wrote. “Punch back, or you’re just a bystander.”
Tech: The Make-or-Break Frontier
Nowhere is Europe’s weakness clearer than in tech. Lagging behind the U.S. and China, the EU risks being forced to pick a side in a technological cold war. ASML’s plight is a warning—U.S. controls already dictate its market. Farrell warned: “Without tech independence, Europe’s screwed. It’s been bullied by both powers. No capacity, no autonomy.” Brussels Economic Security Forum
The EU’s not clueless. Von der Leyen’s pushed for tech investment, and Macron’s called for homegrown industries. But the bloc’s fractured—27 nations, 27 agendas. Some want U.S. alignment; others lean toward China for cheap goods. J.D. Vance, Trump’s VP, stirred the pot, claiming Europe’s real threat isn’t Russia or China but its own dependence. Shangri-La Dialogue He’s not wrong, but it’s a bitter pill.
A Path Forward?
Europe’s at a crossroads. It can keep playing the victim, or it can grow a spine. Building defense, tech, and energy independence isn’t just a wish list—it’s a survival plan. But credibility’s the kicker. The EU needs to back its talk with action—sanctions that bite, investments that deliver, and a willingness to stand firm against both Trump and Xi.
“If Europe wants to play with the big dogs, it’s gotta show some teeth,” Setser said, summing up the mood.
The clock’s ticking. An EU-China summit looms, and Trump’s second term promises more chaos. If Europe keeps dodging the fight, it’ll stay a punching bag, caught between superpowers who play hardball. But if it can muster the guts to stand tall—build its own tech, secure its own energy, and maybe throw a punch or two—it might just carve out a spot in this new global order. For now, it’s a long shot, but stranger things have happened.
