The political and military power structure of Iran is more than a hierarchy it’s a web of competing influences, ideological guardians, and unelected kingmakers. As Israel’s June airstrikes rocked Iran’s leadership and killed top Revolutionary Guard commanders, the regime now faces pressure not just from abroad but from within. The stakes? Nothing short of national survival.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s call for Iranians to “rise up” against their “oppressive regime” may have been as much psychological warfare as diplomatic rhetoric. But it underscores a real question: Who actually holds power in Iran and how secure is it?
Here’s a deep-dive into Iran’s intricate system of control, the players who shape it, and why the Islamic Republic’s resilience may be more fragile than it appears.
The Supreme Leader: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Iran’s Ultimate Authority
At the top of Iran’s political hierarchy stands Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the unchallenged power broker since 1989. Appointed by the Assembly of Experts, an elected council of clerics, the Supreme Leader is accountable to no one but God and perhaps history.
Under Article 110 of Iran’s constitution, Khamenei controls all levers of power: military, judiciary, intelligence, state media, and even who can run for president. His representatives are embedded across the government, ensuring ideological loyalty and a firm grip on both policy and perception.
Khamenei’s longevity has made him the single most influential figure in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The President: Masoud Pezeshkian – A Reformist in a Straitjacket
Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in a July 2024 snap election after the tragic helicopter death of President Ebrahim Raisi, brings a moderate tone to Iranian leadership. A former heart surgeon and parliamentarian, Pezeshkian has promised cautious reforms and renewed diplomacy with the West.
But Iran’s presidents operate in a constrained arena. Pezeshkian, like his predecessors, lacks real authority over key portfolios like the military and nuclear policy, which remain under the Supreme Leader’s domain. His challenges include appeasing hardliners, managing economic despair, and rebuilding public trust eroded by years of repression especially since the 2022 death of Jina Amini, a symbol of nationwide protest.
Guardian Council: Iran’s Ideological Gatekeepers
Led by the ultraconservative cleric Ahmad Jannati, the Guardian Council acts as the constitutional and theological firewall of the Islamic Republic. Half its 12 members are directly appointed by Khamenei, while the other half are jurists approved by parliament.
The Council’s power lies not just in interpreting law but in shaping who gets to make it. It filters all candidates for presidency, parliament, and even the Assembly of Experts. Critics say it ensures elections remain tightly choreographed rituals, not true expressions of democratic will.
The IRGC: Iran’s Military-Industrial Juggernaut
With the death of commander Hossein Salami in Israel’s June 2025 airstrike, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was dealt a symbolic and strategic blow. Yet the force remains the regime’s most loyal defender militarily, economically, and ideologically.
Newly appointed Commander-in-Chief Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour is a war-hardened veteran. Under his leadership, the IRGC is expected to double down on deterrence, both at home through the Basij militia and abroad via its Quds Force.
The IRGC’s reach goes beyond warfare it owns or controls as much as 40% of Iran’s economy, giving it immense leverage in policymaking. Many top politicians, including Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, emerged from its ranks.
Expediency Council: The Quiet Power Behind Compromise
Often overlooked, the Expediency Discernment Council plays a pivotal role in navigating deadlocks between Iran’s elected parliament and the Guardian Council. Its real function? Acting as a shadow cabinet for the Supreme Leader.
Made up of senior clerics, former presidents, and military figures, it ensures continuity of the regime during crises. With Iran facing both external military threats and internal unrest, the council’s influence is only expected to grow.
The Majlis: Parliament Under Pressure
Iran’s parliament, or Majlis, once dominated by clerics, is now populated by a rising class of technocrats and former IRGC officers. Its current Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, exemplifies the fusion of military, political, and economic power in modern Iran.
Despite its constitutional role in crafting legislation and approving budgets, the Majlis is often subordinate to unelected oversight bodies, especially the Guardian Council. Still, it remains a barometer of public sentiment and factional rivalry.
Is the Regime at a Tipping Point?
While Iran’s political system is structured for resilience, its internal contradictions are mounting. Generational divides, economic hardship from sanctions, and a population hungry for personal freedoms are testing the regime’s legitimacy.
And now, with military confrontation escalating and key IRGC leaders eliminated, the very pillars of the Islamic Republic face unprecedented strain. Calls for revolt, whether from foreign leaders or domestic dissenters, may not bring down the system but they reveal its growing vulnerabilities.
Conclusion: The Illusion of Monolith
Iran’s political-military architecture is authoritarian yet fractured, centralized but internally contested. As new crises emerge from foreign attacks to internal unrest the question is no longer just who rules Iran, but how long they can hold on.
For now, the Supreme Leader remains firmly in charge. But the cracks in Iran’s ruling edifice have never been more visible.
