Five years have elapsed since the world came to a standstill. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic of an international scale, plunging humanity into a crisis it had never experienced. From whispers of a “mysterious pneumonia” in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, the world hurtled into an international catastrophe—cities silenced, hospitals overflowing, and refrigerated trucks doubling as makeshift morgues. Today, as we mark this bleak milestone, the naked terror of those early days is distant for many. But for victims, or on the front lines, the scars are still raw. In the past five years, in retrospect, scientists and public health officials are taking stock of what did and didn’t work, and whether we’re ready for the next inevitable pandemic.
A Virus Tamed, Not Vanished
By most accounts, COVID-19 is no longer the doomsday illness it once appeared to be. In the United States, hospitalizations and deaths have declined from their peaks in 2020 and 2021, primarily because of widespread immunity. Billions of individuals worldwide have contracted the virus, been vaccinated, or both—vaccines that studies credit with saving millions of lives. Add to those effective treatments like Paxlovid and steroids, and the picture shines even more brightly. “Last winter, respiratory illness boomed, but COVID played a smaller-than-expect role,” says Dr. William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard. “Severe disease still goes down.”
Don’t, however, mistake progress for victory. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, hasn’t disappeared—it’s entered a pattern of seasonal spikes, tracked through wastewater monitoring. Globally, it’s claimed over seven million lives (a likely undercount), and thousands still die monthly. “COVID isn’t gone,” warns Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove of the WHO. “We can’t just wish it away.” It kills more people than the flu annually, though influenza has edged ahead in hospitalizations this winter. For vulnerable populations, it remains a lurking danger—one we’re still learning to predict.
Triumphs and Missteps
The pandemic’s first few months were chaotic. Scientists struggled to get their heads around a novel germ while governments winged it. There were, of course, screw-ups. America’s deployment of testing was a failure: a CDC monopoly on tests during their initial days combined with a flawed design hampered early detection. Experts since then have said that future pandemics will need faster and wider testing in outside labs. Another misstep? Delays in admitting SARS-CoV-2 transmission through submicroscopic aerosols. Public health messaging was uneven—some officials actually dissuaded mask-wearing in the beginning, blaming shortages or doubting their effectiveness. “We should’ve clarified ‘through the air’ sooner,” says Van Kerkhove, but she insists airborne precautions were always used for certain environments.
Yet in the disarray, there were successes. The mRNA vaccines, developed in a record 11 months, are a scientific marvel. “Operation Warp Speed was a gamble that worked,” says Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s Dr. Paul Offit, praising the Trump administration’s $11-Billion initiative. The National Institutes of Health, which laid the groundwork, should garner just as much praise. Flattening the curve worked too—stay-at-home orders provided hospitals with precious time to get ready. The catch? No one prepared for what came after. “We hit pause but didn’t establish the next move,” according to Brown University’s Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo.
School closures remain a lightning rod. Initially justifiable when the virus was a black box, they remained too long for many, provoking arguments about children’s milder symptoms versus adult danger. Mental health expenses mounted, and alternatives like masks or better ventilation were not utilized sufficiently. “The messaging was too rigid,” says Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. “Uncertainty bred distrust.”
A Nation Divided
Perhaps the deepest hurt the pandemic caused was social. A shared resistance to a common foe started to disintegrate into bitter discord. Vaccines, masks, and lockdowns were politicized. Misinformation—too frequently amplified by then-President Donald Trump—spurred vaccine refusal and mask fury. Republican-leaning areas saw higher death than Democratic ones, a bitter reminder of the divide. “The virus was the enemy, but we fought each other,” Dr. Anthony Fauci explained to *Scientific American* last year. According to a Pew survey, 75% of Americans think COVID did more to split the nation apart than bring it together—a measure of how individualism conflicted with collective effort.
Long COVID and Lingering Questions
Millions also still carry long COVID, a mysterious lingering syndrome featuring fatigue and mental haze. Vaccines lower the risk, but no cures on the horizon. Neurological causes now appear suspect, offering hope for targeted treatments. In the meantime, SARS-CoV-2 lingers, less lethal but ever-present. “It’s here for the long haul,” Hanage says. “We just need to keep it from reaching the vulnerable.”
Are We Ready?
There is another pandemic in the making—most likely influenza, experts say. H5N1 bird flu, ravaging poultry and now dairy cattle, is a contender. With 70 mild human cases and one death in the U.S. as of March 2024, it’s not yet a crisis—but its 50% mortality rate in past outbreaks is chilling. Testing lags, and distrust hampers efforts. “We’re less prepared than in 2020,” Osterholm warns, citing eroded faith in public health. Trump’s recent moves—slashing CDC and NIH budgets, nominating vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health Secretary, and pulling the U.S. from the WHO—don’t help.
Yet there’s a flip side. “We’ve lived this now,” Nuzzo says. “We’ve got flu tests and vaccine stockpiles ready.” Van Kerkhove agrees: countries scarred by COVID may act faster next time. Still, sustaining vigilance is tough. “Prevention’s a hard sell,” she sighs.
Five years on, the COVID legacy is a paradox: a triumph for science, a loss for unity, and a warning. The virus may well vanish, but its lessons must not. The next trial is looming in the wings—whether or not we succeed is down to what we do now.
