Bangladesh reaches a crossroads in history. Sheikh Hasina’s forced exile in August 2024, culminating in 16 years of increasing authoritarian rule, brought a new page in the country’s politics. Once a pro-democracy icon, Hasina completed in a crisis marked by allegations of human rights violations, budget malmanagement, and suppression of oppositions.
Filling this political vacuum is Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate with little government experience. Bangladesh finds itself trying to reestablish order, heal its economy, and prepare for elections as Yunus faces daunting challenges and his success or failure will shape the country’s destiny.
The article describes how Bangladesh came to this point, what this leadership by Yunus means, and the potential impacts on democracy, stability and international relations.
The Hasina Era: Shift from a Pro-Democracy Leader to Authoritarian Rule
Initial Optimism and Economic Progress
Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League won re-election in 2009 by an overwhelming popular mandate. Her government concentrated on development first and made Bangladesh an emerging, fastest-growing Asian economy. Bangladesh’s garment sector boomed, its infrastructure projects increased, and millions were brought out of poverty.
But this prosperity came at a cost: Hasina consolidated power, repressed opposition and increasingly ruled with an iron hand.
Repression against Dissent and Charges of Human Rights Abuses
Hasina’s government over the years had a reputation for muzzling political opposition and criticism:
Election Rigging – Both 2014 and 2018 elections were marred by allegations of vote-rigging and intimidation. In 2024, widespread election rigging triggered widespread uprisings.
Political Repression – Opposition party leaders including those of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and others were arrested and/or sent into exile.
Media censorship – Journalists opposing the government were arrested and intimidated and forced into hiding.
Student and protest crackdowns – The final straw was a violent crackdown on student-led demonstrations demanding democratic reforms. Protesters were fired on by security forces and an estimated dozen people were killed and over a hundred injured, fueling public outrage.
The Revolution Which Derailed Hasina’s Regime
The largest protest movement in scale drove out Hasina. It had begun as campus-based college opposition to government repression and election integrity and had grown into a countrywide call for reform by mid-2024. Strikes, street fights, and in-party defections had produced a crisis by mid-2024 over in which Hasina had lost control.
She fled into exile in August under intense domestic and international pressure. Her government collapsed and Muhammad Yunus was asked to establish a caretaker government.
Muhammad Yunus: Reluctant Leader or Bangladesh’s Democratic Hope?
From Microfinance to Politics
Most widely recognized for his work in creating Grameen Bank and creating the concept of microfinance, Muhammad Yunus has lived most of his life outside of mainstream politics. His appointment as interim chief was symbolic, protesters regarded him as an unbiased individual with an excellent reputation for integrity and financial stewardship.
Yunus himself admitted he had been “dazzled” by the appointment and had no background in running a government.
Key Challenges Confronting the Yunus Regime
Since coming into office, Yunus established two priority tasks:
- Re-establishing Law and Order – Months on from the protest, Bangladesh remains turbulent. Political violence has yet to cease altogether and tensions between opposing sides continue to simmer.
- Economic Recovery – Yunus inherits a “broken economy” with inflation, unemployment, and diminishing investment threatening stability.
Although his government promised reforms, others have complained they have been slow in implementation. Seven months into his rule, concerns still remain regarding security and governance.
Economic Revival: Can Yunus Fix a ‘Shattered Economy’?
Bangladesh’s financial crisis represents a major test of leadership for Yunus.
The Tipāi and Agunigrāhā rivers are relatively
Under the leadership of Hasina, Bangladesh grew rapidly but hid the underlying issues:
Rising Debt – Excessive debt in pursuit of infrastructural development left the country open to risks.
Currency Devaluation – Taka lost its value, and imports became costly and caused an inflationary pressure.
Unemployment Crisis – Young people’s unemployment reached historic highs and triggered demonstrations.
Yunus’s Economic Approach
Up to now, Yunus has focused on:
Tough on Crime and Corruption – His government pledged reforms to bring greater transparency.
Encouraging Foreign Investment – Yunus has sought to reassure foreign investors, but confidence is at a low point.
Small Business Development Support – With his background in microfinance, he came up with plans to assist struggling business owners.
The result remains in doubt though. Economic development remains elusive in most Bangladeshis’ eyes and the government of Yunus remains far from undertaking substantial structural changes.
Geopolitical Realignments: Bangladesh’s Changing International
India’s Measured Rejo
India has stepped into Bangladesh’s transition very carefully. Hasina had been New Delhi’s loyal friend and her exile presents a dilemma. No Indian response to Bangladesh’s arrest warrant against her exists except to grant asylum, and this would come at the risk of upsetting relations with the government of Yunus.
The United States and the Future of Aid
The United States denied nearly $450 million in funds based on governance and corruption concerns. Bangladesh will “get by,” according to Yunus, but the loss of the funds can affect healthcare and development initiatives as well as education.
China’s Role in Post-Hasina Bangladesh
China had good economic relations with Bangladesh under Hasina’s tenure. If Yunus is inclined towards stronger ties with the West, Beijing may attempt to reassert its own influence, particularly in infrastructure agreements and trade agreements.
Awami League: Political Uncertainty and Fears of Retribution
Is Bangladesh Safe for Supporters of Hasina?
Since the ousting of Hasina from power, Awami League members have faced violence and harassment. Party offices and homes, including the home of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the father of the nation, were set ablaze in February 2025. Awami League blamed the government of Yunus for taking inadequate action to protect its members. Yunus himself advises those who are at risk to “go to the police,” but most fear the justice will be skewed.
Will Hasina Make a Comeback?
Here in Hasina’s own political future is uncertain. Although she remains in exile, her supporters may attempt to return to power. Whether Yunus allows her to return or whether she is tried will be one of the central issues of Bangladesh’s future politics.
Is Bangladesh Capable of Transiting Peaceably?
Key Uncertainties
- Will Yunus Offer Free Elections? – His government has committed to have elections between December 2025 and March 2026, and postponement or rigging would result in further unrest.
- Will political violence continue? – Awami League members are apprehensive about reprisals and Yunus’s supporters are calling for justice for previous atrocities.
- Will the Economy Recover? – Long-term Bangladesh stability depends on the economy reforming, but reform has been slow in coming.
A Decisive Moment for Bangladesh Bangladesh comes to a crossroads. If Yunus manages to conduct free elections and stabilise the economy, the nation might at last be on its way towards democracy. If political revenge, bloodshed, and corruption continue to crop up, Bangladesh might be headed towards a return to its former cycle of unpredictability. The coming year will be pivotal—one that the world will be monitoring closely.
